Former Bitmex CEO Arthur Hayes has predicted that bitcoin will find a support level between $30,000 and $35,000. He contends that the ongoing bitcoin selloff is not due to outflows from Grayscale’s bitcoin trust (GBTC). “That argument is bogus,” he claimed, adding that bitcoin’s price movement is “anticipating the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) will not be renewed.”
Ex-Bitmex Chief’s Bitcoin Price Prediction
Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former CEO of crypto exchange Bitmex, has shared his bitcoin price prediction, explaining that he believes the cryptocurrency will form support between $30,000 and $35,000. In a blog post published Tuesday, Hayes detailed:
I think bitcoin will find a local bottom between $30,000 and $35,000.
Referring to his statement earlier this month that he expects a 30% correction for bitcoin, Hayes elaborated in Wednesday’s blog post that “A 30% correction from the ETF approval high of $48,000 is $33,600.” He also previously noted, “The washout could be even more severe if the slate of U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs has already commenced trading.”
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved 11 spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on Jan. 10. Most of them started trading the next day. The price of bitcoin pushed above $47K in anticipation of the approval but dropped below $40K on Monday and $39K on Tuesday.
Discussing why the price of bitcoin plummeted following the ETF launches, the former Bitmex executive said: “The first argument for bitcoin’s recent dump is the outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). That argument is bogus because when you net the outflows from GBTC against the inflows into the newly listed spot bitcoin ETFs, the result is, as of January 22nd, a net inflow of $820 million.”
The former Bitmex boss continued:
The second argument, which is my position, is that bitcoin is anticipating the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) will not be renewed. This event will not be positive as the Fed still has yet to cut rates to a level that pushes the 10-year Treasury into the 2% to 3% range.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve Board announced that the Bank Term Funding Program will cease making new loans as scheduled on March 11. The Fed announced the creation of the Bank Term Funding Program on March 12 last year following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank.
Hayes previously explained that he expects bitcoin will dip before the Bank Term Funding Program renewal decision on March 12. “As the SPX [S&P 500] and NDX [Nasdaq-100] dump due to a mini financial crisis in March, bitcoin will rise as it will front-run the eventual conversion of rate cuts and money printing talk on behalf of the Fed into the action of pressing that Brrrr button,” the former Bitmex executive noted.
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