With only 194,000 jobs added, September’s jobs report disappoints
By Kristen E. Broady, Anthony Barr
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ September jobs report, launched final week, confirmed a lower of 0.Four proportion factors within the U.S. unemployment price, from 5.2% in August to 4.8% in September. Whole nonfarm payroll employment elevated by 194,000 in September, in comparison with a month-to-month common of 561,000, and the variety of unemployed individuals fell by 710,000.
The variety of marginally hooked up employees elevated by 167,000 and the variety of discouraged employees elevated by 58,000. The uptick in marginally hooked up and discouraged employees means that the official unemployment price understates what number of employees are at the moment having bother discovering jobs. Given this problem, it isn’t stunning that the labor drive participation price (61.6%) has remained static, with BLS reporting that the speed has “remained inside a slim vary of 61.4% to 61.7% since June 2020.” Likewise, the variety of employees who’re part-time for financial causes (4.5 million), that means employees who wish to be full-time however have had their hours lower or who can not discover full-time jobs, remained largely unchanged in comparison with final month. Lastly, the variety of individuals not at the moment within the labor drive however who need a job (6 million) has additionally remained largely unchanged.
These disappointing jobs numbers additional underscore the error of ending the expanded UI program. In contrast to the predictions made by proponents of that measure, scaling again help for unemployed individuals didn’t result in a considerable improve in employment. It is because there are merely not sufficient jobs at the moment obtainable, whether or not due to ongoing provide chain disruptions in manufacturing, the influence of the Delta variant on client demand for providers, or varied different elements.
Desk 1 reveals the unemployment price by race for the three-month interval between July and September. The three-month common unemployment price for Black employees, 8.3%, whereas considerably greater than the U.S. unemployment price, did lower on account of the decline in unemployment between August and September. Smaller decreases have been skilled by employees of different races and ethnicities.
Desk 1. Unemployment Fee by Race, July 2021 to September 2021
Desk 2 reveals the U.S. unemployment price by race, gender, and age from September 2020 to September 2021. When age and race are factored in, we proceed to see that Black teenagers between the ages of 16 and 19 have the best unemployment price over the 13-month interval, 17.64%. Nevertheless, in September the best unemployment price, 17.4%, was skilled by Latino or Hispanic teenagers. The labor drive participation price for this group elevated from 31.3% in August to 32% in September.
Desk 2. US Unemployment Fee by Race, Gender, and Age, September 2020 to September 2021
On Friday, President Biden touted regular progress, widespread enchancment, and elevated employment over the primary eight months of his presidency. The president identified that the unemployment price for Black employees, in September, was beneath 8% for the primary time in 17 months. Nevertheless, the unemployment price for Black employees stays 3.1 proportion factors greater than the nationwide common and 1.9 proportion factors above its degree in February 2020. There may be nonetheless progress to be made within the financial restoration to return Black employees to their pre-pandemic employment ranges. However the aim shouldn’t be solely a return to pre-pandemic ranges of employment, a degree that has traditionally been greater than the nationwide common. The aim needs to be to shift labor dynamics and finish systemic and structural racism and discrimination which have led to the racial disparities in employment that we see at present.
President Biden additionally mentioned elevated wages. Actual common hourly earnings elevated 0.4% between July and August. In response to analysis from the Pew Analysis Middle, regardless of the severity of the financial shock created by the COVID-19 pandemic, earnings of employed employees total have been largely unaffected partially as a result of lower-wage employees skilled steeper job losses. Analysis from our colleagues on the Brookings Establishment discovered that “pandemic-induced job losses hit low-wage employees a lot more durable than these incomes greater wages,” and, “Low-wage jobs have been the slowest to return.” The president identified the lower in COVID-19 circumstances towards the tip of September and regular progress on the restoration. Whereas the vaccination price is growing and hospitalizations are down, extra must be performed to get Individuals again to work, finish the pandemic, and deal with the racial employment hole.
